How holiday rental pricing worksOne real night, from 20,426 bookings to $2,193.
We follow one real Friday night in January 2027, step by step, through the pricing model our founders built. Every number is real, and every step is explained in plain words.
By Tom Antonie, CEO and co-founderUpdated 11 November 20267 min read- The model's estimate for one night
- $2,193
- Bookings at the home since 2022
- 124
- Bookings at 15 similar homes
- 1,430
- Bookings the model learns from
- 20,426
Holiday rental pricing works best one night at a time. Start with what guests really paid at your home and at similar homes. Adjust for how busy that date is, across all homes, in your area and at your home. Then a person sets the rate, checks your rules and eases it if the night hasn't booked.
How Lively manages holiday homes
Mount Martha Beach · Mornington Peninsula · Vines at Dromana, Mornington Peninsula
A Friday in late January, 80 days ahead
The night we follow is Friday 29 January 2027, priced on 10 November 2026, 80 days ahead, as a standard two-night stay, the model's usual stay length.
The home is a five-bedroom waterfront home on the Mornington Peninsula that sleeps 14, with a heated pool, a spa and a games room. We keep its name private, so the photos in this guide show the Peninsula and other homes we look after, never this one. What matters is the method. The same steps price every night at every home we look after.
$2,193
The model's estimate for this night
A nightly accommodation price, with a likely range of $1,649 to $2,917. The rest of this guide shows how the model gets there.
RISE, Coolangatta
Start with what guests actually paid
The model only learns from real, confirmed bookings with a clear nightly price and a known booking date. We started with 22,084 booking records from the three holiday rental businesses in our group and kept 20,426, across 248 homes.
Every booking is turned into a nightly accommodation price first, so a booking made on one website can be fairly compared with a booking made on another. Asking prices never go in. Only what guests agreed to pay.
Onyx Retreat, Healesville · The Meadow, Yarra Glen
Find the 15 homes guests would compare it with
Next, the model finds the homes a guest would weigh this one against. Bedrooms and location are only the start. It also looks at how many guests a home sleeps, its type and style, water access, whether the pool is heated, and any sauna, spa, court or games room.
It ranks homes in the same state with at least five usable bookings, then keeps the closest. For this night that is 15 homes with 1,430 bookings between them. Closer matches count more, and the group is rebuilt each time new bookings come in.
01
Match the stay
Size, quality, type, setting and each feature counted on its own.
02
Rank the closest
Same state, at least five usable bookings, closest 15 kept.
03
Weigh them fairly
Better matches and homes with more bookings count for more.
Riviera, Miami. The private rooftop pool.
Blend the home's own history with its neighbours
Now the model builds a starting price. About 72% of it comes from this home's own 124 bookings since 2022. The other 28% comes from the 15 similar homes.
Not every booking counts the same. Recent stays count more. Prices from a home's first months count less, so launch offers don't drag down a home that has since proven itself. Once older stays are counted for less, those 124 bookings carry the weight of about 51 fresh ones. The result is a starting price of $1,497 a night. A newer home with less history leans more on similar homes.
72% / 28%
This home / similar homes
124 bookings at this home, weighted to about 51 fresh ones, plus 1,430 bookings at 15 similar homes. Together they give a starting price of $1,497.
Peninsula Hot Springs Tour · Gunnamatta Trail Rides
Adjust for how busy this date really is, then check the rest
Then the model looks at the date. Each check builds on the one before it.
Late January is busy across all our homes, which lifts the price by about 45%, to $2,167. It is a little busier again in this local area, adding about 7.5%, to $2,330. Then the model looks at this home's own pattern for this time of year. Its own bookings are a little softer at this time of year, so it takes off about 6%. That lands on $2,193 a night.
Start
$1,497
The starting price from real bookings at this home and 15 similar homes.
All homes
$2,167
Late January is busy across all our homes: about 45% more.
Local area
$2,330
A little busier again in this part of the Peninsula: about 7.5% more.
This home
$2,193
This home's own pattern at this time of year: about 6% less.
The model also checks how far ahead the night is, how long the stay is, and whether there is an event or holiday that week. For this night, none of them moved the price. Eighty days ahead and a standard two-night stay are the usual booking window and stay length the model measures everything else against, so neither changes anything, and there's no event that week. On a long weekend, or a night two weeks away, these checks can matter a lot.
Kane, portfolio manager
A person sets the rate, and keeps adjusting it
The estimate is our best read of what the night is worth. Your portfolio manager, such as Kane, Callum or Kristen, uses it to set the actual rate.
While the date is months away, we usually start a little higher, because there's time to find the right guest. If the night hasn't booked as it gets closer, the rate eases. Before any rate goes live we check your own rules, like the lowest nightly price you'll accept, minimum stays, dates you've kept for yourself and gaps between bookings that could still be filled.
What's booked from here, in your owner portal
Luxury Portsea Sanctuary, Portsea. The owner's own words.
Attention to detail and a high level of coordination meant guests have consistently loved their stay.
The price works when the right guests find the home
A good rate needs guests who want the home. These are real posts from our recent campaigns, which send people to the pages where they see live dates and prices.
Curious how your home's nights would be priced?
Tell us about the home and the weeks you want to keep. We'll walk you through how the model sees it, and what a gross range for your year could look like.
Photo: Musk Creek, Flinders. The view to Western Port.
Before you go
Questions owners ask about pricing
How do you set the price for each night?
Our own pricing model, PricingHub, estimates each night from real bookings at your home and at similar homes, then adjusts for how busy the date is. Your portfolio manager sets the actual rate and checks your own rules, like your lowest nightly price, before it goes live.
Does the model set my prices on its own?
No. It gives an estimate for every night. Your portfolio manager uses that estimate to set the rate, checks your rules and keeps adjusting it as the date gets closer.
Can I set a lowest nightly price?
Yes. Tell us the lowest price you'll accept and we'll check every rate against it before it goes live, along with your minimum stays and the dates you've kept for yourself.
My home is new. What does the model use?
With little or no history of its own, the starting price leans more on similar homes. As real bookings come in, the home's own history counts for more.
Is the $2,193 a promise of what my home will earn?
No. It is one real night at one real home, used to show how the model works. Your home's nights depend on your home, your dates and your area.
Can I still use my holiday home?
Yes. You choose the weeks you want to keep before we open the calendar, and you can plan your own stays later through your owner portal. We build the earnings range around the dates you actually make available.
Who will I deal with?
A portfolio manager who knows your home, such as Callum, Kristen or Kane, backed by our founders, Tom and Guss. You can also ask a question any time in your owner portal and see the answer there.
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How we worked this out
Pricing figures come from PricingHub, our own pricing model, worked out on 10 November 2026. It started from 22,084 booking records and kept the 20,426 confirmed bookings with a clear nightly price, across 248 homes from the three holiday rental businesses in our group. We keep the example home's name private.
The likely range of $1,649 to $2,917 is where the model expects a night like this to land. The rounded steps are $1,497, $2,167, $2,330 and $2,193. The percentages are rounded too. They include past stays and future bookings, all as nightly accommodation prices. We recalculated the example with PricingHub's own code, on booking data from 10 November 2026.
This guide explains how we work. It is not an earnings forecast or a promise of bookings for your home, and every figure is gross, before any costs.